Bitcoin on-chain buy and sell signals

About the signal log

The signal log lists the on-chain conditions that have historically marked stress or excess in the Bitcoin market, and shows which of them are active today. Each rule is a fixed, published threshold on a single metric: MVRV Z-Score in extreme overvaluation, NUPL below zero (the market as a whole underwater), SOPR below break-even, the Puell Multiple signalling miner capitulation, RSI-14 overbought or oversold, and others.

Because the thresholds are fixed, the log can be checked against history: every past activation is scored by what price did afterwards. Rules without enough history to score are marked as such rather than given a made-up hit rate.

Signals are evaluated on the daily close from our own node's data, with no look-ahead: a day's reading only uses information that existed on that day. Where a signal was wrong, it stays in the record. The track record page publishes each rule's misses alongside its hits, and the log is timestamped so it cannot be quietly edited after the fact.

Treat these as context for your own research, not as buy or sell instructions.

Metrics used here: MVRV Z-Score · NUPL · SOPR · Puell Multiple · Reserve Risk · RSI-14 · all metrics