Dashboard/Lab/MVRV Z-Score

MVRV Z-Score

MVRV / NUPL

Standardized MVRV separating market cap from realized cap relative to volatility. The top cycle-top indicator.

Current Value

0.9043

As of

2026-10-16

Z-Score

—

Signal

Green

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Methodology

Open, reproducible — computed from our own archive node

Definition

MVRV Z-Score — the gap between market cap and realized cap, standardized by the volatility of market cap. The single most-cited cycle-top indicator.

Formula

MVRV Z-Score = (market_cap − realized_cap) / std(market_cap)

How we compute it

We compute the dollar gap between market cap and realized cap, then divide by the expanding-window standard deviation of market cap (minimum 30 days), so the score is comparable across eras of very different absolute price levels.

Provenance · Every on-chain metric traces back to our own self-hosted Bitcoin archive node — no third-party data vendor sits in the path. We extract the full UTXO lifecycle (each output's creation height/time, value, and the height/time it was later spent), join it against an independent USD price oracle, and roll it up into daily aggregates. The metric formulas are pure functions over those aggregates (src/pipeline/formulas.py), so any value on this page can be reproduced from the published daily archive.

Interpretation

High values mean market value has stretched far above aggregate cost basis relative to historical volatility — classic top territory. Low/negative values mark deep value zones.

< 2Normal / accumulation
2 – 7Elevated (caution)
> 7Cycle-top danger zone

Caveats & limitations

  • ·We standardize by the std of market cap (an expanding window). Some vendors standardize the gap series itself; the shape is equivalent but absolute z-values may differ slightly.
  • ·Uses the measured cost-basis realized cap since 2026-10-12 (see MVRV).

References

LookIntoBitcoin, "MVRV Z-Score"

Data points: 6,491 rows, 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16Open in Lab →

Current MVRV Z-Score reading

As of 2026-10-16, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is 0.904, compared with 1.892 one year earlier (2025-10-16). The series has 6,491 daily readings from 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16, computed from our own full-archive Bitcoin node and refreshed every day.

Historical extremes

The highest MVRV Z-Score on record is 9.849 on 2010-09-16; the lowest is -0.647 on 2011-10-20. Readings near either end of that range have historically coincided with cycle turning points — use the chart above to see where today sits relative to past extremes.

Read it with

  • MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value.
  • NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.
  • Realized Cap — Sum of all UTXOs valued at the price when they last moved, measured coin by coin from our own node.
  • Thermocap — Market cap divided by cumulative miner revenue.
  • BTC Price — Bitcoin price (USD)

Data & method

Source: computed from raw UTXO data on OnChainLab’s own Bitcoin node — no third-party data vendor. Category: MVRV / NUPL. Last updated 2026-10-16. The full series is free to download as JSON or as part of the full daily CSV, and the published dataset is cryptographically committed — you can verify it yourself. Browse all metrics.