Bitcoin on-chain strategy backtester

About the backtester

The backtester lets you write a simple rule-based Bitcoin strategy from on-chain metrics and see how it would have performed on the full daily history. Rules take the form of a metric crossing above or below a threshold (for example, buy when MVRV Z-Score crosses below zero and sell when it crosses above six), and several rules can be combined.

The strategy is evaluated day by day on our published dataset, and each decision uses only the values that were known on that day, so the result is free of look-ahead bias. The results show the strategy's return and drawdown and the distribution of its trade outcomes, so you can judge whether a rule adds anything beyond the underlying trend.

A good-looking backtest is not evidence that a rule will keep working. There are only a handful of full Bitcoin cycles, so it is easy to fit thresholds to past tops and bottoms. Use it to test ideas and to check whether a claim you have seen holds up, not as a promise of future returns. Definitions for every metric are one click away on its metric page.

Metrics used here: MVRV Z-Score · SOPR · NUPL · Mayer Multiple · Puell Multiple · all metrics