Reserve Risk
HODL / Reserve Risk
Confidence of long-term holders relative to price. Low reserve risk = good accumulation opportunity.
Current Value
0.0000
As of
2026-10-16
Z-Score
—
Signal
Green
Methodology
Open, reproducible — computed from our own archive node
Definition
Reserve Risk — price relative to the accumulated conviction of long-term holders (the HODL Bank). Low reserve risk = attractive risk/reward to accumulate.
Formula
reserve_risk = price / hodl_bankHow we compute it
HODL Bank is a 30-day rolling proxy for accumulated holder conviction (live UTXO count × average spent age). Reserve Risk divides price by it.
Interpretation
Low values = high conviction at low price (good accumulation). High values = price has run far ahead of holder conviction (distribution risk).
Caveats & limitations
- ·Our HODL Bank uses a UTXO-count × age proxy rather than the original opportunity-cost (HODL-bank-of-coin-days) construction, so absolute thresholds are calibrated to this series, not to other vendors'.
References
Hans Hauge, "Reserve Risk"
Current Reserve Risk reading
As of 2026-10-16, Bitcoin’s Reserve Risk is 0.000, compared with 0.000 one year earlier (2025-10-16). The series has 5,904 daily readings from 2010-08-18 to 2026-10-16, computed from our own full-archive Bitcoin node and refreshed every day.
Historical extremes
The highest Reserve Risk on record is 0.000 on 2011-06-10; the lowest is 0.000 on 2010-08-18. Readings near either end of that range have historically coincided with cycle turning points — use the chart above to see where today sits relative to past extremes.
Read it with
- HODL Bank — Cumulative opportunity cost of HODLing.
- HODLer Position Δ — Net change in long-term holder positions.
- Active Supply 30d — Proportion of supply that has moved in the last 30 days.
- BTC Price — Bitcoin price (USD)
- MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value.
Data & method
Source: computed from raw UTXO data on OnChainLab’s own Bitcoin node — no third-party data vendor. Category: HODL / Reserve Risk. Last updated 2026-10-16. The full series is free to download as JSON or as part of the full daily CSV, and the published dataset is cryptographically committed — you can verify it yourself. Browse all metrics.