Dashboard/Lab/On-Chain Signal

On-Chain Signal

Name: Bitcoin On-Chain Signal (daily)
Creator: OnChainLab

Valuation Models

Composite of multiple on-chain indicators. Above 0.6 = bullish, below 0.4 = bearish.

Current Value

-0.5264

As of

2026-10-16

Z-Score

—

Signal

Red

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Methodology

Open, reproducible — computed from our own archive node

proxy / approximate

Definition

On-Chain Signal — a composite oscillator blending SOPR, profit, and velocity momentum into one regime read.

Formula

onchain_signal = (sopr_osc + profit_osc + 10 × velocity_momentum) / 3

How we compute it

An equal-weight blend of the SOPR oscillator, profit oscillator, and (scaled) velocity momentum. A convenience composite, not a trained model.

Provenance · Every on-chain metric traces back to our own self-hosted Bitcoin archive node — no third-party data vendor sits in the path. We extract the full UTXO lifecycle (each output's creation height/time, value, and the height/time it was later spent), join it against an independent USD price oracle, and roll it up into daily aggregates. The metric formulas are pure functions over those aggregates (src/pipeline/formulas.py), so any value on this page can be reproduced from the published daily archive.

Interpretation

Above ~0.6 = broadly bullish on-chain conditions; below ~0.4 = bearish.

> 0.6Bullish

0.4 – 0.6Neutral

< 0.4Bearish

Caveats & limitations

·A hand-weighted composite (the velocity term carries a ×10 scaling), not a statistically-fit signal. Use it as a quick summary, not a standalone trade trigger.

Data points: 6,491 rows, 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16Open in Lab →

Current On-Chain Signal reading

As of 2026-10-16, Bitcoin’s On-Chain Signal is -0.526, compared with -0.786 one year earlier (2025-10-16). The series has 6,491 daily readings from 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16, computed from our own full-archive Bitcoin node and refreshed every day.

Historical extremes

The highest On-Chain Signal on record is 4.909 on 2010-05-15; the lowest is -4.222 on 2025-03-29. Readings near either end of that range have historically coincided with cycle turning points — use the chart above to see where today sits relative to past extremes.

Read it with

Realized Cap (true cost basis) — Realized cap computed coin by coin: every unspent output valued at the price on the day it was created, from our own node.
Realized Cap (legacy seeded estimate) — The realized-cap estimate published until 2026-10-12: anchored to hand-entered reference values, with daily changes filled in between.
Realized Price (true cost basis) — True cost-basis realized cap divided by live supply — the average price at which every coin last moved.
Puell Multiple — Daily miner revenue divided by 365-day average.
Stock-to-Flow — Existing supply divided by annual new issuance.

Data & method

Source: computed from raw UTXO data on OnChainLab’s own Bitcoin node — no third-party data vendor. Category: Valuation Models. Last updated 2026-10-16. The full series is free to download as JSON or as part of the full daily CSV, and the published dataset is cryptographically committed — you can verify it yourself. Browse all metrics.