Dashboard/Lab/Capitulation

Capitulation

Name: Bitcoin Capitulation (daily)
Creator: OnChainLab

Profit / Loss

Binary capitulation flag. 1 = widespread loss-taking detected, historically marks bottoms.

Current Value

1.0000

As of

2026-10-16

Z-Score

—

Signal

Red

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Methodology

Open, reproducible — computed from our own archive node

proxy / approximate

Definition

Capitulation flag — a binary marker (1/0) for days of widespread loss-taking.

Formula

capitulation = 1 if profit_ratio < 0.5 else 0

How we compute it

Set to 1 on days when the profit ratio (share of spends in profit) falls below 0.5.

Provenance · Every on-chain metric traces back to our own self-hosted Bitcoin archive node — no third-party data vendor sits in the path. We extract the full UTXO lifecycle (each output's creation height/time, value, and the height/time it was later spent), join it against an independent USD price oracle, and roll it up into daily aggregates. The metric formulas are pure functions over those aggregates (src/pipeline/formulas.py), so any value on this page can be reproduced from the published daily archive.

Interpretation

Clusters of 1s historically mark bottoms — most spending is being done at a loss.

Caveats & limitations

·A simple threshold flag on profit_ratio, not a multi-factor capitulation model.

Data points: 6,491 rows, 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16Open in Lab →

Current Capitulation reading

As of 2026-10-16, Bitcoin’s Capitulation is 1.000, compared with 0.000 one year earlier (2025-10-16). The series has 6,491 daily readings from 2009-01-03 to 2026-10-16, computed from our own full-archive Bitcoin node and refreshed every day.

Read it with

Supply in Profit — Percentage of circulating supply currently in profit.
Profit Ratio — Ratio of profitable to total spent outputs.
Profit Momentum — Rate of change in profit-taking.
Profit Oscillator — Mean-reverting profit oscillator.
Net Realized P/L — Net realized profit minus loss in USD.

Data & method

Source: computed from raw UTXO data on OnChainLab’s own Bitcoin node — no third-party data vendor. Category: Profit / Loss. Last updated 2026-10-16. The full series is free to download as JSON or as part of the full daily CSV, and the published dataset is cryptographically committed — you can verify it yourself. Browse all metrics.